Ecommerce is heading into 2026 with a very different set of rules than just a few years ago. Customer acquisition costs are rising, paid advertising channels are delivering less predictable results, and shoppers are more selective about what they buy and who they buy from.
So what does winning look like now?
In our recent webinar, What Lies Ahead in Ecommerce: 2026, leaders from across the ecommerce ecosystem shared what worked in 2025 and what's changing next. The conversation featured perspectives from Country Life Natural Foods, SeaMonster Studios, PostPilot, and Smile, each bringing a different lens on growth, retention, and customer engagement.
Rather than trying to predict every trend, the conversation surfaced four major shifts that ecommerce brands should be paying close attention to in 2026, especially if the goal is sustainable growth without relying on constant discounting.
1. The Discount Era Is Wearing Thin (And Quietly Killing Profit Margins)
One of the most important shifts heading into 2026 is a growing awareness of a hard truth: discounting is expensive and trains customers to wait for sales.
For years, running more promotions felt like the fastest path to revenue. But many brands are now seeing the long-term downside:
- Lower profit per order
- Weaker brand perception
- Customers who only buy during sales
- Less cash available to invest in growth
The takeaway isn't about eliminating promotions entirely. Blanket discounts are becoming harder to justify, especially when acquisition costs are already high.
What's Replacing Constant Discounting in 2026?
More brands are shifting toward benefits-based incentives: offers that feel valuable to customers but don't erode margin the way straight discounts do.
Common examples include:
- Free gift with purchase
- Exclusive access or early drops
- VIP perks and tiered rewards
- Paid memberships with real benefits
A $10 discount is real cash out the door. A $10 perceived-value benefit, like a gift, perk, or VIP advantage, can often deliver a similar conversion lift with a much healthier margin outcome.
What to Do Next
If your brand is stuck on the sale treadmill, start here:
- Track your average discount rate (even a simple monthly snapshot helps)
- Test benefit-led promotions before discount-led ones
- Give your best customers reasons to stay that go beyond price
2. Retention Is the Growth Strategy (Not Just a Marketing Channel)
If one idea came through clearly in the conversation, it's this: retention is how ecommerce brands survive and scale in 2026.
When customer acquisition gets harder, the brands that win are the ones that make customers come back more often. That means focusing on metrics like:
- Repeat purchase rate
- Purchase frequency
- Customer lifetime value (LTV)
- Time to second purchase
Loyalty and Membership Programs Are Leveling Up
In 2026, loyalty is evolving from points and rewards into something broader: a system that protects margin while increasing customer lifetime value.
From the merchant perspective, brands like Country Life Natural Foods shared how retention-focused strategies including loyalty programs, membership-style benefits, and lifecycle touchpoints are changing customer behavior. Instead of relying on constant promotions, they're seeing stronger purchase frequency and deeper customer relationships by giving engaged customers real reasons to return.
More brands are using loyalty and membership programs to:
- Reward profitable behavior (not just purchases)
- Create VIP experiences customers want to stay in
- Reduce reliance on discounts
- Drive repeat buying through perks and status
When done well, loyalty programs become a meaningful competitive advantage. Customers talk about them, share them, and increasingly choose brands that feel less interchangeable.
What to Do Next
To drive retention-led growth in 2026:
- Optimize for the second purchase (it's the biggest turning point in LTV)
- Build loyalty around benefits, not constant discounts
- Make the experience feel like a relationship, not a transaction
3. The Channel Mix Is Shifting (Because Trust in Paid Social Is Declining)
Paid acquisition isn't dead, but ecommerce brands are being forced to rethink how much they rely on it.
From the agency side, teams like SeaMonster Studios are seeing this shift play out across many brands at once. Paid social is becoming less predictable, performance data is harder to validate, and customer acquisition costs continue to rise.
As a result, more brands are diversifying their channel mix.
What Diversification Looks Like in 2026
Instead of betting everything on a single platform, brands are spreading investment across a broader mix, including:
- Email and SMS (still foundational)
- Creator and partnership marketing
- Marketplaces (with tradeoffs)
- Direct mail for reactivation and lifecycle touchpoints
- Brand and community-driven growth
The more a brand relies on one channel, the more vulnerable it becomes when costs spike or performance changes overnight.
Where Direct Mail Fits in the Modern Mix
Direct mail has re-emerged as a real ecommerce channel because it offers something digital often can't: a physical touchpoint that cuts through noise.
Platforms like PostPilot have made direct mail far more accessible and measurable for ecommerce brands, allowing teams to trigger postcards based on customer behavior and use them intentionally across retention and reactivation flows.
Brands are using postcards strategically for:
- Winback campaigns
- Dormant customer reactivation
- First-purchase reinforcement
- Lifecycle nudges that don't rely on inbox placement
For many teams, direct mail complements existing channels rather than replacing them, helping create a more resilient overall system.
What to Do Next
To diversify intelligently in 2026:
- Don't chase every shiny new channel. Run small tests.
- Double down on what's working, but keep exploring new levers
- Prioritize channels that support retention, not just first purchase
4. AI Is Changing How Customers Shop (And What Conversion Even Means)
Customer shopping behavior is evolving in meaningful ways that ecommerce brands need to understand.
In 2026, one of the biggest changes is how customers are using AI to inform purchasing decisions, often before they ever land on a brand's site.
LLM Discovery Is Becoming Real
More shoppers are arriving pre-educated after researching questions like:
- "What's the best option for ___?"
- "Compare these products"
- "What should I buy if I have ___ goal?"
That shift affects the funnel. Many customers are forming preferences earlier and arriving with higher intent.
AI Sales Agents Are the Next Conversion Layer
Another fast-moving trend is the rise of AI agents on ecommerce stores.
These tools can help customers:
- Find the right product faster
- Answer nuanced questions
- Reduce friction at checkout
- Assist with order changes and support workflows
For many SMB brands, this opens up new ways to improve conversion and customer experience without scaling large support teams.
What to Do Next
To stay ahead of AI in ecommerce in 2026:
- Make sure your site content is clear, structured, and easy to interpret
- Test an AI agent on high-intent pages (product pages, cart, FAQ)
- Use AI to support the customer experience, not replace your brand voice
The 2026 Ecommerce Playbook: Simple and Practical
If you're planning for growth this year, here's what matters most:
✅ Reduce discount dependency to protect margin
✅ Invest in retention systems that increase repeat purchases
✅ Diversify acquisition channels to reduce risk
✅ Use AI to improve customer experience and conversion without losing authenticity
Because in 2026, the brands that win won't be the loudest. They'll be the ones that build customer relationships that last.
Ready to build a loyalty program that drives retention in 2026? Learn how Smile can help your brand create VIP experiences, reduce discount dependency, and increase customer lifetime value.
